SPURS · THE FINAL FIVE

2025/26 Relegation Simulator
Matchweek 33 · 5 games to go
Updated April 19, 2026

Five matches stand between
Spurs and the drop.

Tottenham sit 18th on 31 points. Below: their actual run-in. Pick outcomes for any fixture and watch the relegation maths recalculate in real time, or run 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations using each opponent's form and home advantage.

Current Pos
18th
In the relegation zone
Current Pts
31
PPG 0.94 over 33 games
Projected Pts
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From your scenario
Likely finish
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Run a simulation
Call each match — your prediction shapes the odds 0 of 5 predicted

Probability of finishing position

20th
Bottom · Last
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19th
2nd from bottom
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18th
3rd from bottom
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17th
4th from bottom · Safe
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≤16th
Comfortably safe
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0 simulations
Out of 10,000 Monte Carlo runs
P(relegated)
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The relegation race · Bottom 6

Method. For each Spurs fixture, win/draw/loss probabilities are computed from each team's season points-per-game with a home advantage of +12% on win share. Locking an outcome forces that result in every simulated season. Other clubs in the relegation race draw their remaining results from a multinomial calibrated to season PPG (draws peak around PPG ≈ 1). Final positions are sorted by points; ties broken randomly as a proxy for goal difference.

Source data — Sky Sports, ESPN UK. April 19, 2026.