SPURS · THE FINAL TWO

2025/26 Relegation Simulator
Matchweek 36 · 2 games to go
Updated May 11, 2026

Two matches stand between
Spurs and survival.

Tonight's 1–1 home draw with Leeds means Tottenham sit 17th on 38 points — two clear of West Ham with two to play, and a win in either of Chelsea (A) or Everton (H) is likely enough. Burnley and Wolves are already down. Pick outcomes for either fixture and watch the relegation maths recalculate in real time, or run 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations using each opponent's form and home advantage.

Current Pos
17th
Out of the drop zone
Current Pts
38
PPG 1.06 over 36 games · W2 D1 last 3
Projected Pts
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From your scenario
Likely finish
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Run a simulation
Call each match — your prediction shapes the odds 0 of 2 predicted

Probability of finishing position

20th
Bottom · Last
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19th
2nd from bottom
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18th
3rd from bottom
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17th
4th from bottom · Safe
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≤16th
Comfortably safe
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0 simulations
Out of 10,000 Monte Carlo runs
P(relegated)
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The relegation race · Bottom 6

Method. For each Spurs fixture, win/draw/loss probabilities are computed from each team's season points-per-game with a home advantage of +12% on win share. Locking an outcome forces that result in every simulated season. Other clubs in the relegation race draw their remaining results from a multinomial calibrated to season PPG (draws peak around PPG ≈ 1). Final positions are sorted by points; ties broken randomly as a proxy for goal difference.

Source data — Sky Sports, Premier League. Reflects matchweek 36 results through May 11, 2026, including tonight's Tottenham 1–1 Leeds. Crystal Palace remain on 35 played (one catch-up game still outstanding). Burnley and Wolves are mathematically relegated.